What is overconfidence bias? How do I avoid it at work?

Have you ever walked out of a job interview thinking you totally nailed it, only to be surprised that you didn't get the job? Or felt sure you could crush your coworker at a game you’d never even played before?

Don’t feel weird or embarrassed — that’s just your brain playing tricks on you. It’s called overconfidence bias, a sneaky mental shortcut that makes us believe we’re better or more accurate than we actually are.

It’s not just about ego: overconfidence bias shapes how we make decisions every day, from managing money to choosing careers and relationships. Understanding this bias isn’t just interesting, it’s essential if you want to make smarter, more realistic decisions either in personal life or at work.

Overconfidence is a cognitive bias where we overestimate our abilities or knowledge:

We incorrectly assume that we are better, wiser, or more capable than we are. This bias can seriously affect our behavior and ability to predict success and accurately gauge risk.

According to psychologist Dillon Harper, it's "the brain's way of boosting self-esteem and reducing anxiety. It does this by focusing on past wins while minimizing or ignoring failures."

Overconfidence bias might be influencing you at work more than you think. It can disguise itself as genuine confidence, but unlike true competence, it’s built on assumptions, often unchecked ones. In the workplace, it often shows up as:

• Underestimating how long a project will take.

• Volunteering for responsibilities far beyond your skill set.

• Believing your ideas are automatically better than others'.

Image courtesy of Marcelo Magalhães via Freepik

Do some of these experiences feel familiar? Keep in mind that overconfidence bias is completely normal, but left unchecked, it can slow down your progress.

The influence of overconfidence bias can lead to outcomes that you don't want:

• Strained team relationships: Coworkers may feel frustrated if you take on too much, ignore feedback, or assume you’re right.

• Reduced quality of work: Overconfidence often leads to skipping important checks, not asking questions, or failing to prepare thoroughly.

• Damaged professional reputation: Consistently overpromising and underdelivering can make managers hesitant to trust you with important tasks.

While these consequences may sound serious, the good news is that overconfidence bias is manageable. However, before you explore the solutions, think about why it happens in the first place.

Overconfidence doesn’t appear out of nowhere. It’s shaped by our experiences, our environment, and even our brains.

Here are some of the possible contributors:

• Lack of experience: When you’re new to full-time work, you simply don’t know what you don’t know. Without past failures to learn from, it’s easy to underestimate complexity.

• Social pressure to “look confident”: You’ve probably heard “fake it till you make it.” It is easy to feel pressure to appear competent. Overconfidence becomes a shield against feeling inexperienced.

• Misinterpreting early wins: You may assume new tasks will be similar to some of your previous winning experiences. But past success doesn’t always translate directly to real-world demands.

Now that you have a better understanding of overconfidence bias, it doesn't sound as scary as it did before, right?

Avoiding overconfidence bias at work isn’t about limiting your confidence. It’s about strengthening it with clarity and accuracy.

Try to build healthy self-awareness at work.

Ask Clarifying Questions

Questions help ground your understanding and prevent assumptions. Even if the task seems simple, ask questions like:

“What does success look like for this project?”

“Are there past examples I should review?”

“What challenges should I expect?”

Practice Realistic Time Estimation

Adding buffers to what you have estimated may help counter the natural tendency to underestimate effort.

Seek Feedback Early (Not Just at the End)

Check in with your supervisor or colleagues halfway through. Early feedback prevents major issues later.

Embrace the Beginner Mindset

It’s okay to be new. In fact, early career professionals who openly ask for help often progress faster than those who try to appear overly self-assured.

Use Data Instead of Assumptions

Base your confidence on evidence, not feelings. Instead of “I’m sure I can do this quickly,” say:

“My last similar task took 6 hours, so I should plan for that or more.”

You’re assigned a new project and think you understand it perfectly after a quick skim of the instructions. What should you do to avoid overconfidence bias?

A. Start the project immediately. You don’t want to waste time asking questions.

B. Ask your supervisor a few clarifying questions to confirm expectations before you begin.

C. Trust that your past successes mean you’ll figure it out as you go.

D. Begin the project and only ask for help if something goes wrong.

These strategies may help you replace overconfidence with informed confidence — letting you make better decisions, build stronger relationships, and grow steadily.

Remember: recognizing overconfidence bias isn’t a weakness. It’s a powerful step toward becoming a more self-aware and effective professional.